Bitcoin Price analysis

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – 28th September

Bitcoin has been reaching new highs this year above $16,000 and has been consolidating around this level for a week.

In this article, we’ll see how CME trapped weekend shorters and what I am expecting for Bitcoin in the next days and weeks.

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CME Futures, a trap for retail traders?

Ever heard about Bitcoin CME Futures? 
CME stands for Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Professional Traders and institutions can trade Bitcoin Futures on CME. However, like all the stock exchanges, the CME closes on weekends.

Thus, charts get a little different when it comes to watching a traditional chart like Binance compared to the CME chart, whose ticker is BTC1!.

Bitcoin CME price
CME Chart during the weekend

As you may notice, the CME chart has a pretty obvious trendline support and closed its week above it.

On the other hand, when you monitor the Binance or Bitmex Chart, you can see the obvious break of this trendline.

Bitcoin bitmex price
Bitmex Chart during the weekend

As you can see, the Bitmex Chart shows the breaks of the support trendline. Retail traders, more used to this kind of chart, are more likely to switch to short positions after the breakout.

💡 I will always recommend my readers to not trade during the weekend. The low volatility and the fact that CME Futures are closed make Bitcoin very volatile and, most often, traps retail traders. 

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What is Bitcoin going to do next?

Bitcoin Price Analysis

As shared on our Telegram Channel a few hours ago, this analysis is relevant for the next days and will help you to plan your next trades.

CME opened with a small gap above the current trading price and filled it a few hours later. It also claimed back the noticeable support trendline.

Below this structure, the price would be in a neutral/flat zone since we can expect the MA50 to act as a support. Indeed, we can see that it has been strongly bouncing above it last week. 

On the other hand, we can notice a second confirmed bearish divergence on the RSI. A bearish scenario cannot be ignored. Thus, breaking below the MA50 would my bearish breakpoint and we would likely retrace to the H4 horizontal support at $14,000.

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Conclusion

Bitcoin remains bullish as we speak, and the CME chart is a strong asset for those who are charting it. However, we must always build a plan for multiple scenarios. Indeed, Bitcoin has been pushing from $10,000 to $16,000 in 3 weeks. Not trading the retrace would be losing a big opportunity.

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